Your article is well researched and thought out. I’m inclined to agree that regional power structures will emerge as governance within the USA evolves. It also seems likely that the right-wing political agenda to limit the life choices made by women and minorities will be ascendant at the federal level. This will incentivize liberals to prefer regional governance. But of course there are curveballs that will have some deterministic effects on outcomes: 1) possible foreign attack by cyber and military means (thinking of China, mostly); 2) impacts of climate change across coastal areas along with desertification of western lands; and 3) economic instability where considerations of the dollar’s decline, unsustainable growth, and disruption of free movement of commerce begins to kick in. It’s also possible that all governments will begin to collapse over the next few decades because of climate change pressures. Global war will be a distinct possibility with profound consequences.