Your analysis rests on a lot of assumptions about the future behaviors of many different actors. You write well and what you have to say is a good read. But because our very home (planet Earth) has been set on fire and will continue to heat up in destructive cycles for decades going forward no one can know how he or she will associate survival with politics. For example, what will the mega-drought mean politically for California, Utah, Texas, and the other southeastern states? Will the political fights be over water, abortion, or “open carry”? Will Floridians worry about killer heat and destructive flooding or be consumed with debates about “gay math books”? How long will it be before climate disaster causes some states to default on debts or even become ungovernable because all the infrastructure support systems fail? Human rights are important. Having a free and fair democracy is a laudable ideal. But if the very land you exist on is on fire, or flooding, or is unable to support farming the ideals of what’s legitimate in life suddenly change to survival as one’s measure of what’s best. All prediction of human action depends on there being a stable floor to our natural world. But that is no more. We have already launched ourselves toward an alien world that humanity has no experience with. The climate emergency is going to escalate every year from now and going forward; and the chaos will accelerate like nothing we have ever known before. By 2030 a lot of people, institutions, and governments will know real panic. By 2050 the world will be in life-altering chaos. The joys, sorrows, and concerns of what we think are important now will be ironic nostalgia.