The drivers of social organization (in my opinion) are energy, food & building resources , geography, and climatic stability. If the drivers (as listed) are abundant and stable, complexity can grow along with population numbers and concentration of wealth. Political organization is a top dressing that comes about through relational externalities.

In my view, if enough of the factors that enable the development of complexity begin to deteriorate (energy loss, food scarcity, etc.) then the top dressing of political organization will restructure to accommodate itself into whatever the new physical and biological underpinnings demand.

My conclusion is that resource availability and climatic conditions of the coming decade both in the US and worldwide will be the determinative factors in reshaping governmental organization and the details of societal complexity. We will adjust or we will die.